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Star Feature - No. California Economics - Page A4 Star

March 18, 1997

Commuting: SJ Valley vs. Palo Alto

Staff Writers, The Daily Republican newspaper

PALO ALTO DESK - Fed up with the daily traffic nightmare, well, the SF Chronicle reported on Tuesday that three out of five Bay Area residents now say it's time to let go of the California dream of a big house on a large suburban lot.

Given a choice between houses that cost the same, 60 percent would opt for a smaller home closer to where they work rather than a larger one farther away, according to a poll by The Chronicle, KRON-TV and KQED-FM. The poll questioned 800 people about their homes, jobs and visions for Northern California.

Yet when those same residents are asked about their dream houses, almost all want to live in a single-family detached home and 63 percent want that home on the large lot that only the most distant suburbs or the priciest neighborhoods can provide.

The poll, done by Mark Baldassare for the Voice of the Voter project, is the first to measure the complex interrelationship between housing availability and traffic congestion in the Bay Area. It found that residents, much like the politicians who represent them, are better at identifying problems than committing to make the tough choices many experts warn are needed to fix them.

``Everyone recognizes the need for land-use changes in the abstract,'' said Stephen Levy of Palo Alto's Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. ``But it's different when (those changes) are in your own neighborhood.''

There's widespread agreement that the Bay Area is jammed with cars and people. Almost two-thirds of those surveyed describe the area as very congested and 94 percent believe it's at least somewhat congested.

Long-distance commuters get the blame for much of the gridlock. Area-wide, 70 percent believe the commuters contribute a great deal to traffic congestion.

Yolanda Schiller is one of those commuters. Every weekday morning at 4:30, she leaves her four-bedroom home in Modesto and starts her two-hour, 100-mile drive to her job at Palo Alto City Hall, where she works as assistant to the City Clerk.

Schiller has been making that drive for 3 1/2 years, since she, her husband and their son, now 12, left their rented apartment in Sunnyvale for a home they could afford to buy.

``You get used to the drive, although the road has been getting more crowded in the past six months or so,'' she said. ``I'd like to find something closer to home, but right now, there's not much out there.''

While Schiller misses the faster-paced life of the South Bay, she's happy with her home and convinced that the move has worked out well for her family.

According to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Schiller is among the fastest-growing group of commuters -- workers who drive from the more affordable suburbs that have sprung up in such places as Tracy, Manteca and Hollister.

``They're not building townhouses in the suburbs,'' said Michael Teitz, a professor of city and regional planning at the University of California at Berkeley. ``The houses may be smaller (than they once were), but they're still detached because that's what people want.''

Still, for most Bay Area residents, that dream house remains a dream. While 63 percent want a big house and back yard, only 33 percent have one. And while only 4 percent want to live in an apartment, 17 percent actually do.

Jim Clahan, a retired teacher, has a home on 1 1/2 acres in Petaluma that he's owned for 25 years. When he bought his first house in the 1960s, it cost $35,000.

``We have a daughter getting married, and for them to jump in and buy a house, they'd have to pay $150,000,'' he said. ``That's a tough, tough proposition for a young person.''

The $80,000 family income level seems to be the dividing line as far as housing affordability is concerned. Above $80,000 a year, 55 percent of Bay Area residents say they can afford to buy their dream house. That number falls to 41 percent of those making at least $40,000 annually and to 34 percent for those making less.

Not surprisingly, the higher the income, the more likely a family is to own a home. Of families making more than $80,000, 86 percent own their own homes, while that number drops to 41 percent for those making less than $40,000. The highest percentage of homeowners is in the North Bay, at 71 percent, while only 44 percent of San Francisco residents own their home.

About half the Bay Area's homeowners have mortgage payments higher than $1,000 a month, with 9 percent paying more than $2,000. But 80 percent of homeowners 55 or older pay less than $1,000 a month.

The high price of housing also is bad news for renters. While about 55 percent of those renting want to buy a home in the Bay Area, only about 27 percent think they will be able to do so in the next two years.

Even so, few are discouraged enough to move out of the Bay Area. Only 18 percent of those surveyed said high housing costs will force them to move, and a third don't plan to move until they retire.

Pam Ascatigno lives in Concord and uses BART to get to her job as an executive secretary at a bank in downtown San Francisco. Although her husband, who teaches in Pittsburg, dreams of moving to a quieter, less congested area, Ascatigno is content with their life in the East Bay.

``I'm not convinced it's better out of here,'' she said. ``Sometimes things are crowding in on me, but I feel like I can control where I want to work and live.''

Bay Area residents seem to be willing to take action to deal with the region's growing congestion. By wide margins, they want cities to provide more housing for seniors (77 percent), moderate-income residents (74 percent) and low-income residents (65 percent). They also want to see more urban redevelopment in the inner cities (74 percent), more construction inside city limits (68 percent) and a greenbelt around the region where new construction would be barred (67 percent).

Planning experts, however, question the strength of those convictions, noting that it's much easier to support a construction project when it's in someone else's back yard.

It's simple to blame local politicians for refusing to make the often unpopular decisions that might make a dent in the Bay Area's congestion problems, but that's not the real problem, said Gary Binger, planning director for the Association of Bay Area Governments.

``The politicians reflect their constituents,'' he said, and there are few people anywhere in the Bay Area who are anxious to see an apartment complex go in down the block.

Those not-in-my-back-yard concerns show up when people are asked if they would favor requiring high-density development and regional planning. Barely half favor required high density and only in San Francisco do a majority want regional development. North of the Golden Gate, where the most open land is, barely 40 percent favor such measures.

But the poll makes it clear that residents have a growing concern about the congestion and housing woes that threaten the quality of life they have come to expect in the Bay Area. That is particularly true in the high-tech world of the Silicon Valley, where most of those quality-of- life issues have come to a head. The booming economy that has sparked a new surge of growth in the South Bay also has spotlighted the woes expansion can bring.

In 1996, there were 38,000 new jobs created in Silicon Valley, but only 5,000 building permits were taken out for new homes. In some parts of the South Bay, commutes have grown by 30 minutes a day or more because of increased traffic.

Bay Area residents across the board -- more than 60 percent in each region -- want to force cities to provide more moderate-income housing near the employment centers of the Silicon Valley, and 55 percent want companies there to locate new jobs and plants in the less congested regions of the Bay Area.

The strongest support for relocating Silicon Valley businesses comes from South Bay residents, who are willing to exchange the financial benefits those companies bring for less congestion, easier commutes and shorter lunch lines at the fast-food joints. North and East Bay residents are the least enthused about the idea.

Whether people in the South Bay, or in any other Bay Area community, are committed enough to push through the changes they say they want is an open question, however.

``There's no great sense of crisis,'' said Joseph Bodovitz, president of the California Environmental Trust. ``People don't see things as so terrible that something has to be done now.''



THE BAY AREA'S DREAM HOUSE

Given a choice of houses of equal value, most would
prefer a smaller house closer to where they work over a large house
further away

Small home closer to work: 60% Large home further from work: 31% Don't know: 9%


But most people in the Bay Area dream of owning a detached home on
a big lot, but only a third can make it a reality

Current home Ideal home Detached home on large lot 33% 63% Detached home on small lot 33% 22% Attached home/condo 12% 7% Apartment 17% 4% Other 4% 4%


An income of $80,000 seems to be the dividing line for housing affordability in the Bay Area. Over half the households earning $80,000 or more say they are able to afford the kind of house they want.

Over $80,000 55%

$40,000 to $80,000 41%

Under $40,000 34%


Majority expressed satisfaction with their current housing and said it
meets their needs

Very well 56% Somewhat well 34% Badly 10%


INCREASING HOUSING IN THE BAY AREA

Build more affordable housing

There is strong support for senior housing... Favor 77% Oppose 19% Don`t know 4%

...and for moderate-income housing... Favor 74% Oppose 21% Don`t know 5%

...but less support for low-income housing Favor 65% Oppose 30% Don`t know 5%


Better land use in the Bay Area

Strong support for allowing development in the valleys... Favor 63% Oppose 30% Don`t know 7%

...and even more support for moderate-income housing re-development in the inner cities... Favor 74% Oppose 18% Don`t know 8%

...but mixed support for more high-density development in cities Favor 52% Oppose 42% Don`t know 6%


Where not to develop

Most residents oppose allowing new housing development on hillsides in the Bay Area Favor 63% Oppose 30% Don`t know 7% Sources: Baldassare and Associates


BAY AREA HOUSING POLL


by the Chronicle, KRON-TV and KQED-FM

Nearly three-quarters of a million people work outside their area of residence, contributing to a long-distance commute across county lines.

Percent of people who Number of out-of

work outside their county commuters

area of residence North Bay 24% 160,900 San Francisco 21% 74,900 East Bay 24% 348,000 South Bay 10% 100,500


How much do you think people commuting long distances from home to
work contributes to traffic congestion in the Bay Area?

A great deal 70% Somewhat 22% Only a little 5% Not at all 2% Don't know 1%

Sources: Baldassare and Associates and U.S. Bureau of the Census; 1990


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